Westminster+JA+-+Rajesh+Jegadeesh+&+Priyanka+Anand+neg

TOC ROUND 6 VS GREENHILL RR --- US-AFRICA RELATIONS BAD IMPACT TURNS

US-Africa Rels Bad Rels key to solve arms sales States News Service, 2006 “Keynote Address: Maritime Safety and Security – Gulf of Guinea Ministerial Conf.” “At the beginning of his administration in 2001…..governance, economic, and conflict resolution fronts.”

Arms sales are vital to prevent Russian military collapse and the Russian econom Wallander, 2002 “In addition, it is important to understand that the manufacturing….dependent on the military economy for survival.”

David 99

T/ Ethanol --- Rels key to increase ethanol Cohen, 2007 Heritage Foundation “Africa’s Oil and Gas Sector”

“Increasing U.S. investment in Africa has numerous advantages….this tariff violates the principles of free trade and undermines U.S. energy security”

Expanding biofuel use → warming Monbiot, 2007 Commondreams.org “In principle, burning biofuels merely releases the carbon….also cause runaway climate change”

T/ Energy Key to reduce dependence on ME oil NYT, 2002 Commondreams “Africa, the neglected stepchild of American diplomacy, is rising…..our political posture toward these countries important to the flow of oil?”

dependence on Persian gulf oil key to US military leadership in the Gulf Delucchi and Murphy, last updated in 2008 “U.S. MILITARY EXPENDITURES TO PROTECT THE USE OF PERSIAN-GULF OIL FOR MOTOR VEHICLES” “The end of the Cold War essentially eliminated any Soviet threats…we estimate the magnitude of this commitment.”

ME presence solves war, econ, heg Mead, WSJ, 7 “For the past few centuries, a global economic and political system has been….America’s very highest international priorities”

Runaway warming risks ext. Brandenburg and Paxson 99 (john, visiting Prof. Researcher @ Florida Space institute, and Monica Rix, Science Writer, “Dead Mars, Dying Earth”, p. 232-233 “One can imagine a scenario for global catastrophe…a few hardy microbes surviving”

Cooperation sparked by the plan is key to solar power Xinhua 99 (emerging Markets Datafile, “News Analysis: U.S. Attaches Importance to Energy Development in”, 12-16, L/N) “The United States is seeking more business opportunities in African energy…need genuine actions rather than lip service”

Solar Power leads to silver Shortages Savinar 4 (Matt, JD, “The peak Oil and Die-off” http://www.Unicamp.br/fea/Ortega/eco/traducau_DieOff.pdf) “Virtually all solar panels currently on the market…frequently used to conduct electricity”

Silver shortages cause global war Morgan 5 (David, Silver Investor, “The Silver Trap—and its explosive trigger”, 1-31, http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/morgan013105pv.html) “The silver Trap is composed of 1) Too little silver in the world. 2)Too much demand for Silver…or even government bonds”

AT: Africa Not Key to Biofuels

Investment means Africa could become the world's largest producer Gray and Katembo '07 (Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, "Africa, Seeds, and Biofuel", 1:1, http:www.scientificjournals.org/journals2007/articles/1101.pdf) Not only is Africa's climate… Jatropha promotion in selected countries

Africa could be the world's primary supplier Reuters 6 ("Africa Looks to Shrubs and Sugar to Beat Oil Price" www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/37419/story.htm) Our continent should… Dakar.

1NC Africa Relations Bad: Solar Power

Silver Shortages cause global war Morgan 5 ("The Silver Trap- And Its Explosive Trigger" ww.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/morgan013105pv.html) The Silver Trap… or even government bonds.

Africa Relations Bad: Drugs

US-Africa Relations Solve Drug Trafficking Quedraogo 99 *"Africa-at-Large; Burkina Faso's Ouedraogo Addresses U.S.-Africa Ministerial lexis nexis) Hence the necessity for Africa… U.S.-Africa relations"

Drug Trafficking Key to Mexican Economy Jordan 00 In this matter… selling us on the installment plan

Turn- Elephants:

US-Afirca Cooperation key to Elephant Conservation US Newswire 2 (United States Offers Altenrative Proposal in Debate Over Ivory Sales") The United States… national parks.

Elephant Conservation cause elephant overpopulation- leads to soil erosion Africa News 6 ("Botswana; Time for Cites to Listen to Botswana on Elephant Culling" 9-6) In the recent past… with absolutely no benefit

Soil erosion risks extinction Horne and McDermott 01 ("The Next Green Revolution: Essential Steps to a Healty, Sustainable Agriculture" Google Print) Topsoil is crucial to agriculture… than any of these scenarios

TOC Round 1: RRW Bad

Bush is pushing RRW but it won't pass
Earth Times, "Reject New Nuclear Warhead, Arms Control Groups Tell Congress", 4-15-2008, [|http://www.earthtimes.org /articles/show/reject-new -nuclear-warhead-arms-control -groups-tell-congress,353109 .shtml] Twenty-eight arms control advocacy and religious organizations called ... prevent the spread and use of nuclear weapons."

Plan popular / builds political capital (I have no idea what link we read or even what the aff was in that debate)

RRW will be a tough fight – capital key
Ian Hofmann, Staff Writer – Inside Bay Area, 2-19-2007, Lexis With the new "reliable, replacement warheads," ... nuclear testing and nonproliferation."

RRW causes nuclear testing and global proliferation
Robert W. Nelson, Senior Scientist – Union of Concerned Scientists, Arms Control Today, April 2006, [|http://www.armscontrol.org/act /2006_04/reliablefeature.asp] __Assumption__ 3: __The RRW__ Program __Will Mitigate, Not Increase,__ Political __Pressure to Test__ ... profoundly undermine efforts to limit nuclear proliferation.

That causes a breakout that escalates into global nuclear war
Rebecca Johnson, Executive Director – Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy, The Guardian, 7-17-2001, Lexis Then the international arms control and non- proliferation regimes ... grumbling won't keep us safe. It is time to speak out.

Westminster (All Teams) – Negative

Politics—Law of the Sea Good

Russia impact— Failure to ratify makes US-Russian conflict and miscalculation inevitable over sea bed resources. The Statesman Journal (Oregon), 9/10/2007. "U.S. should sign sea treaty to stake claim in the Arctic," http://www.statesmanjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070910/COLUMN0703/709100322/1097/OPINION.

The hypothetical Northwest ... clean it up Miscalculation causes nuclear war. Arnold Kanter et al, Senior Fellow at the Forum for International Policy, 9/13/1999. "A Deal With Russia On Arms Control?" Boston Globe, http://fas.org/nuke/control/abmt/news/e19990914deal.htm.

Second, we want ...pay the price

Iran impact— Ratification of the Law of the Sea is vital to preventing naval miscalculation with Iran – this risks massive oil price spikes Richardson, 1/24/08 - energy and security specialist at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Michael, The Straits Times (Singapore), "High stakes for Asia in Persian Gulf security", lexis)

THE United States ...critical to Asia Iranian retaliation would close the Strait of Hormuz and cause Iraq to explode Giraldi, 5/2/07 (Philip, former US CIA officer, "A High Price to Pay for Ignorance," [|http://www.antiwar.com/orig/giraldi.php?articleid=10900)]

Poor intelligence also ...aircraft carrier

Super spike causes global depression Douthwaite '03 (Richard, "Oil and the Irish Economy", [|http://www.constructireland.ie/articles/0210douthwaite.php)] In April, the ...a barrel again

Bearden

War in the Gulf could start by miscalculation – it will escalate throughout the region Turkish Daily News, 07 (2/2, "US-IRAN TENSIONS MIGHT LEAD TO WAR", lexis)

Citing Iranian involvement ...large confrontation

War with Iran would increase global terrorism and destroy the global economy Cirincione and Grotto, 07 - Vice President for National Security of the Center for American Progress AND Senior National Security Analyst of the Center for American Progress (Joseph and Andrew, Contain and Engage: A New Strategy for Resolving the Nuclear Crisis with Iran, 2/28, [|http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf)]

Iran Would Retaliate There would also ...combat fitness

Law of the Sea key to the war on terror—all your turns are wrong. John Negroponte, Deputy Secretary of State, Testimony Before Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 9/27/2007. www.state.gov/s/d/2007/92921.htm.

Myth: The Convention ...cooperative partners

LOST accession vital to protect oceanic biodiversity. Brent Wagner and Philip Lofrumento, Research Assistant and Intern in Maritime Studies at CSI, 1999. The Washington Quarterly, Summer, Lexis.

Last but not least...environmental groups

Ratification of the treaty is crucial to hegemony to deter Russian influence in the region CHOSSUDOVSKY, ECONOMICS PROFESSOR AT UNIVERSITY OF OTTAWA, 08-20 [Michael, "North American Integration and the Militarization of the Arctic", CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON GLOBALIZATION, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=6586]

The Battle for the Arctic ...through unchallenged

EU Soft power

1nc: Promoting EU health assistance to Africa is vital to effective EU foreign policy – this is vital to global environmental protection, terrorism, and disease prevention Owen, 06 - Chair, University of Wales Institute, Cardiff, and adjunct professor of public health, University of Sydney (John, Health and Conflict Prevention, ed: Andrew Melbourn, [|http://www.madariaga.org/download2.asp?file=Anna%20Lindh%202006.pdf)]

There is a need… modern foreign policy.

The plan will collapse EU foreign policy – anti-Americanism and foreign assistance are the glue that holds the EU together and attempts to boost the U.S. image will destroy the EU as an effective global model Melvin, 05 (Don, Austin American-Statesman, 5/15, “The United States of Europe”, lexis)


 * Europe, with its…foreign policy, he said

The EU model of governance is vital to forming transnational linkages between states – this de-emphasizes the need for military force as a solution to conflict Rifkin, 04 - founder and president of the Foundation on Economic Trends (Jeremy, The Utne Reader, Sept/Oct, "The European Dream" http://www.itssd.org/Issues/EuropeanDream.pdf

While the American spirit… welfare of the planet.

Enhancing transnationalism will transform global political divisions and prevents global nuclear war Seita, 97 (Alex, Professor of law at Albany Law School of Union University, 30 Cornell Int'l L.J. 429, lexis)

Because globalization… the risk of nuclear war.

Warming 1nc Impact: EU soft power is key to solve global warming. Alem, 06 - Ambassador of the Mission of Morocco to the EU (Menouar, DEFINING EUROPE’S SOFT POWER, 25/04/2006 [|http://www.friendsofeurope.org/Portals/6/Documents/Reports/SOD%20CC%20on%20Soft%20Power%2025-04-06.pdf)]

However, Europe, as… tackling climate change."

Warming will trigger climatic oscillations that kill billions and collapse the global economy Milbrath, 1994 – Director of Research Program in Environment and Society at SUNY-Buffalo [Lester W., “Climate and chaos: Societal impacts of sudden weather shifts,” The Futurist, May/Jun, ProQuest]

The most-probable… a house of cards.

Balkans 1nc Impact: EU soft power is vital to Balkan stability Carl Bildt, prime minister of Sweden 91-94, Financial Times: 1 June 2005 ” Europe must keep its soft power” http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/bildt_ft_1june05.html

Yet, in recent years… the EU has caused.

Balkan instability spreads throughout Europe – the impact is WWIII Paris in ’02 (Roland, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at University of Colorado, Political Science Quarterly, “Kosovo and the metaphor war”, Volume 117, Issue 3, Fall, Proquest)

At this early stage in…, before it is too late.

This causes nuclear escalation Glaser, 1993 (Charles, professor of public policy studies at the University of Chicago, International Security, Summer, ebsco)

The ending of… the American homeland.

2nc Cards

Environment 2nc: EU soft power is vital to global environmental protection – it is modeled globally Islam, 07 (Shada, The Business Times Singapore, 10/16, “EU can be a role model - once it sorts out reforms”, lexis)

But Europe's 'soft power'… and safeguarding the environment.

The impact is extinction. David Diner, Judge Advocate General's Corps, United States Army, Winter, 1994 (Military Law Review, ln) The prime reason… closer to the abyss.

Terrorism 2nc:

EU soft power is key to fighting terrorism Joseph S. Nye Jr. is professor of international relations at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and author of "The Power Game: A Washington Novel." , 11/15/04, “Tapping Soft Power: America Needs a Strong Europe”, International Herald Tribune. http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/15/ednye_ed3_.php

European soft power…coordinate their strategy

Alexander

Malthus

Africa’s carrying capacity is low – population growth is exceeding it because of declines in mortality Sai-04 - physician, long-time public health activist in Africa, and advisor to the president of Ghana on HIV/AIDS (Frederick, World Watch “Population, Family Planning, and the Future of Africa”, Vol 17, Issue 5; September/October, p g34)

These are all…health care

Death checks are the only way to forestall extinction – they are the only reason we’re currently alive Brown, 06 professor of physiology at West Virginia University (Paul, Notes from a Dying Planet, p. xvi)

This book is…soon enough

Population is decreasing globally because of the perception of resource constraints – the provision of foreign aid reverses this and increases birth rates Abernethy, Professor of Psychiatry at Vanderbilt,-04 (Virginia Deane, World Watch- “Not Tonight, Sweetie; No Energy”, Washington Sept/Oct)

Worldwide, the dynamics…fertility levels

Population growth exploits natural resources, destroys the environment, increases terrorism, and increase mass migration spurring chaos worldwide Cassils – Director of the population institute of Canada – 2004 (J. Anthony, “Overpopulation, Sustainable Development, and Security: Developing an Integrated Strategy,” Population and Environment, January)

Population growth…people expect

Conspiracy K

AIDS conspiracy theories undermine real world prevention ross 6 - WHO center for health promotion and prevention research, "conspiracy beliefs about the origin of HIV/AIDS in four racial/ethnic groups" - www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerenderfcgi?artid=1405237

their conspiracy theory arguments prevent real world solutions dervarics 5, www.prb.org/articles/2005/conspiracybeliefsmaybehinderinghivpreventionamongafricanamericans.aspx a new national survey...prevention says thorburn

aids conspiracy theory is based on faulty science - gilbert no date – mediafilter.org/caq/caq58/trackgenocide.html the most common...are not retroviruses

the timing of aids conspiracy theories is off - empirically false gilbert no date - same there is another...proposed parent viruses

their entire 1ac is based on conspiracy theory that prevents real world change gilbert no date - same in light of this...propel the epidemic

1nc K: their methodology is flawed - conspiracy theory relies on non falsifiable data, is self referential and anything used to disprove htem is part of a larger conspiracy -t his is a worldview that encourages witchunts against anyone that disagrees with them. vote neg on presumption because the aff hasn't advanced a warrant for their 1ac's truth value s silverstein 2 - "An Excess of Truth: Violence, Conspiracy Theorizing and the Algerian Civil War" Anthropological Quarterly, 75.4 - 2002, 643-74, ebsco generally speaking, communicative...neglecting the rest

our argument isn't that conspiracies dont exist but that their specific conspiracy is stpuid and buys into fascist tthinking - utilize specific standards of evidence to evaluate truth claims and not accept the "expertise" of their authors. they must prevent you with verifiable claims to win berlet, 99 - www.publiceye.org/rightwoo/rwooz9-45.html#698_280450 investigative reporting and...than reagan or bush

social change - conspiracy theory is so illogical that it discredits legitimate attempts to investigate how power operates and prevents developing effective strategies for resistance. we agree that the world needs changing and that power operates behind the scenes but its not due to the actions of a few powerful individuals but instead is a structural phenomenon that requires a focus on social justice to correct. focusing on conspiracy theory lets institutions responsible for inequality off the hook berlet, 4 - zmagsite.zmag.org/Sept2004/barsamian0904.html for millenia there's...would be heterosexism

not only is their evidence not qualified it makes massive leaps in logic and evidence and employs racist scapegoating techniques to cover up its flaws - its the ultimate fascist worldview and promotes racism and totalitarianism berlet no date - www.publiceye.org/top_conspire.html every major traumatic...oppression can flourish

alt - advocate resistance to oppressive governmental practicies through organized non cooperation and to question authority - this is the only check to coming totalitarianism, perm is impossible - refusing intellectual standards of analyzing truth claims makes it easy for the government to stamp out opposition bc the govt employs the logic of conspiracy theory as an excuse for the never-ending war on terrorism and destructuion of individual liberty shivani 3 - www.counterpunch.org/shivani02222003.html in recent days...enough to overcome more

2nc cites perm is political suicide - focus on conspiracy theory trades off w/ real attempts to combat structural violence berlet 4 - zmagsite cite, above with all the hard...diversity and equality args about political use of conspiracy theory dont reflect current us culture pasley 2k - conspiracy.pasleybrothers.com/CT_an%20American_Exceptionalism_web_version_Main.htm on one level...and professional scholarship

RFID Neg Cites

Solvency: 1nc – repackaging easily circumvents the plan and undermines incremental steps at reform – this takesout the entire case Christian, 05 - vice president and head of global corporate security for Novartis International (James, Federal News Service, 6/15, lexis)

Pharmaceutical companies…and in the United States

The failure rate is sky-high Liang, 06 - Executive Director and Professor of Law, Institute of Health Law Studies, California Western School of Law (Bryan, 32 Am. J. L. and Med. 279, “Fade to Black: Importation and Counterfeit Drugs”, lexis)

The bill attempts…private industry perspective

The lack of international cooperation undermines solvency Gilbert and Halwani, 05 - attorneys (Tim and Sana, 36 Cal. W. Int'l L.J. 41, “Confusion and Contradiction: Untangling Drug Importation and Counterfeit Drugs”, Fall, lexis)

The FDA has advocated…codes and standards

Plan is extremely longterm – complete harmonization must occur first Demetrakakes, 05 (Pan, Food & Drug Packaging, 6/1, “Pharma fakes”, lexis)

The problem with RFID…to individual packages

Fake RFIDs circumvent Scalet, 07 - senior editor (Sarah, CSO Online, “The 5 Myths of RFID”, 5/1, [|http://www.csoonline.com/read/050107/fea_rfid_2.html)]

The crucial point…identifying the duplicates

Turn – innovation

a. pharmaceutical companies are weighing RFID against all other technological alternatives – they’ll crack down but will invest in what works best for them

NGP, 06 (Next Generation Pharmaceutical, “Does RFID have a place in pharma’s future?” [|http://www.ngpharma.com/pastissue/article.asp?art=268374&issue=170)]

In addition to..he acknowledges

b. government regulations always fail – they lack market information and the plan kills innovation Adler, professor at Case Western Reserve University and former director of the Environment Program at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, 2000 (Jonathan, “Introduction to Ecology, Liberty and Property”, June 5, [|http://www.cei.org/gencon/019,03107.cfm)]

Baden cautioned critics…free market environmentalism

Regulations fail – industry noncompliance Sunstein, professor of law at the University of Chicago, 1990 (Cass, 57 Chicago Law Review 407, Spring, lexis)

Despite the stringency…other settings

Noncompliance turns the case – it depends on uniformity Quirk, 07 - attorney at the Venable law firm with a specialty in telecommunications regulation and policy (Ronnie, Traffic World, 3/26, “RFID's New Challenge; Tracking technology improves, but legislation threatens to further hold up widespread implementation” lexis)

Despite all these…and future regulations

2nc Repackaging means that counterfeit drugs will be put into RFID packages Christian, 05 - vice president and head of global corporate security for Novartis International (James, Federal News Service, 6/15, lexis)

And so what we have…of a counterfeiter

Other industry examples don’t apply at all Patton, 06 (Susannah, “Cracks in the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain”, CIO Mag., Jan. 15, [|http://www.cio.com/article/16565/Cracks_in_the_Pharmaceutical_Supply_Chain/5)]

Celantano acknowledges…by the radio waves

RFIDs have to go in the packaging – no technology exists to mark the pills Scalet, 07 - senior editor (Sarah, CSO Online, “The 5 Myths of RFID”, 5/1, [|http://www.csoonline.com/read/050107/fea_rfid_2.html)]

When RFID boosters…anyone’s guess

Too many ways to circumvent the 2ac evidence – infiltrating distribution networks, cloning packaging, and inevitable damage to RFIDs mean its easily circumvented – and Liang’s conclusion is to vote neg on presumption because duping the system would shatter all confidence in it Liang, 06 - Executive Director and Professor of Law, Institute of Health Law Studies, California Western School of Law (Bryan, 16 Alb. L.J. Sci. & Tech. 483, “STRUCTURALLY SOPHISTICATED OR LAMENTABLY LIMITED? MECHANISMS TO ENSURE SAFETY OF THE MEDICINE SUPPLY”, lexis)

Industry spokespersons…the drug supply

Regulations empirically fail because a lack of information for central planning Stewart, professor of law at New York University School of Law, 1996 (Richard, 15 Journal of Law and Commerce 585, Spring, lexis)

Throughout the world…other societal needs

RFID isn’t coming: They predicted the same thing in 2004, its false because the technology still sucks and they will still listen to industry Scalet, 07 - senior editor (Sarah, CSO Online, “The 5 Myths of RFID”, 5/1, [|http://www.csoonline.com/read/050107/fea_rfid_2.html)]

Given all these..

Politics RFID adoption is being blocked by the pharmaceutical lobby – it perceives the technology fails EE Times Asia, 11/16/07 (“RFID hits roadblocks in war vs. fake drugs”, [|http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800489301_499488_NT_82bbe061.HTM)]

The electronics industry…engineering problems

The fear of the plan means that pharmaceutical companies will wage a political battle against it CBS News,4-1-07 (L/N)

KROFT:…didn’t disagree

2nc This link outweighs their turns – even if some pharma companies like the plan – 76% of them oppose it because of the perception of poor physical security for RFID tags

Labor Law Weekly, 10/5/07 (“Physical Security Essential for RFID Pharmaceutical E-Pedigree Certainty”, lexis)

MIKOH Corporation…reading device

Fears that RFID signals destroy the drugs themselves drive industry opposition – perception outweighs reality Liang, 06 - Executive Director and Professor of Law, Institute of Health Law Studies, California Western School of Law (Bryan, 16 Alb. L.J. Sci. & Tech. 483, “STRUCTURALLY SOPHISTICATED OR LAMENTABLY LIMITED? MECHANISMS TO ENSURE SAFETY OF THE MEDICINE SUPPLY”, lexis)

n129. Industry representatives…30% unusable

Industry studies confirm massive fears of reliability and unforeseen costs

Liang, 06 - Executive Director and Professor of Law, Institute of Health Law Studies, California Western School of Law (Bryan, 16 Alb. L.J. Sci. & Tech. 483, “STRUCTURALLY SOPHISTICATED OR LAMENTABLY LIMITED? MECHANISMS TO ENSURE SAFETY OF THE MEDICINE SUPPLY”, lexis)

RFID suffers from…fake or tainted drugs

the plan would enrage early adopters of RFID that invested tons of money in the technology for competitive advantage. The plan pays for RFID adoption for Pfizer’s competitors – which makes Pfizer’s prior investments useless

RFID Update, 06 (“What the FDA Announcement Means for RFID”, 6/12, [|http://www.rfidupdate.com/articles/index.php?id=1136)]

One important thing…ROI-driven adoption

The vast majority of companies haven’t invested in RFID – only the big players like Pfizer have – and Pfizer has invested millions. The plan subsidizes Pfizers competitors

Whiting, 06 (Rick, “FDA Scolds Drug Industry For Anemic RFID Adoption”, Information Week, 6/19, [|http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=189500084)]

RFID in the industry…to be done yet

Technological lockin is a link - there’s still a big debate over appropriate technology – bar codes vs. RFID – and the plan would force manufacturers that have invested a lot in bar codes to lose those investments since they have to use RFID instead DeMarrais, 10/24/07 (Kevin, The Record, “A Cure for Fake Drugs?”, lexis)

Bar codes, which…to carry RFIDs

Hegemony Bad

Hegemonic temptation – A. MAKES MILITARY AGGRESSION INEVITABLE LAYNE 6 (THE PEACE OF ILLUSIONS: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present, pp. 152-3) There is another road to US oversxtension…more than they can chew

B. Policymakers will exaggerate threats to justify hegemony Layne 6 (Same as above, p 185-6) Proponents of offshore balancing…too many times in the past

C. This creates self-fulfilling prophecies and perpetual wars, causing extinction Valunzuela 6 ("Perpetual War, Perpetual Terror", informationclearinghouse.info) Today the Us is responsible for 40%...we fear most, a terrorist state.

Multipolarity is inevitable Lyne 6 (Same as above, page 149) Although balance-of-power theorists…multipolar between now and 2020

Hegemony fuels terrorism Layne 6 (page 189-90) the events of 9/11 are another example….a lightning rod for muslim anger

Extinction – Alexander 3

Us hegemony on balance generates greate instability than retreat Kolko 6 (The Age of War: The United States confronts the world, page 173-8, Gabriel) the obsession with power and the conviction that armies…only produced endless misery and upheavals of every kind

Hegemony is unsustainable – multiple economic costs Layne 6 ("Impotent Power? Re-examining the nature of America's hegemonic Power", the national interest, ebsco) The real issue is not if American primacy will end…no longer could afford to maintain its primacy

Delaying the transition makes the economic costs worse – collapses the economy Layne 6 (Ebsco Article, form above) During the past 15 years or so since the Soviet Union…economic base upon which it rests

Mead 92

Airpower DA

1nc: A. AFRICOM will be rejected now – the plan ensures AFRICOM sustainability by focusing it on threats to African insecurities instead of the US’s Africa News. 8/1/07. “Africa: Questioning Africom” No Author Lexis. In October 2008…http://www.africafocus.org B. AFRICOM overstretches the Air Force – it’s on the brink now and current calculations for hiring and cutting personnel don’t assume AFRICOM’s huge needs Inside the Air Force, 12/21/07 – “Air Force may need more personnel to fill troop support roles” lexis The Air Force may…the three-star said

C. The Air Force is in the midst of an equipment crisis – every plane and every dollar counts. And, budget caps force tradeoffs US Fed News, 7 – lexis – “TOP AIR FORCE GENERALS ADDRESS AIRMEN'S CONCERNS” Recapitalization, creation…Lichte said

And, current recapitalization is key to continued air dominance Wynne and Mosely, 10/24/07 – Michael Wynne, secretary of USAF and Gen. Michael Mosely, Air Force Chief of Staff Dept. CQ congressional Testimony: “AIR FORCE STRATEGIC INITIATIVES” – lexis Our final priority is…our current dominance

D. Airpower readiness is the only internal link to deterrence, solving counterinsurgencies, and preventing a US-China conflict; escalation means extinction Dunlap, 6 (Maj. Gen Charles Dunlap Jr, Armed Forces Journal, deputy judge advocate of the Air Force, has 30 years of service and graduate of the National War College, “America’s Assymetric Advantage”) So where does that leave us… U.S. is at risk

2nc: And, airpower readiness prevents multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict in Asia Khalilzad and Lesser, 98 (Zalmay Khalilzad and Ian Lesser, eds. Ashley J. Tellis, Chung Min Lee, James Mulvenon, Courtney Purrington, and Michael D. Swain, “Sources of Conflict in Asia” RAND Corp)

This subsection attempts…already broken out

this is the most probable scenario for a nuclear war: Dibb, 1 (Paul, Naval College War Review, Winter 01, “Strategic Trends – military and political in Asia”) The areas of maximum danger… when confronted with major crises.

Tradeoffs are inevitable – budget caps force it AFA, 6 (Air Force Association, December 06 – Air Force Magazine, Vol 28 no 12, “Investing Now in Airpower for Tomorrow” AFA 2007 Statement of Policy, [|http://www.afa.org/magazine/dec2006/1206investing.asp)] All signs are…to 28 years

The current political climate proves- Congress is resisting giving the Air Force free reign over their own recapitalization budget Defense Daily, 10/26/07 – “Air Force Makes Renewed Case For Managing Inventory Without Legislative Restrictions” Lexis

The Air Force's leadership…bill, he said

The Air Force is experiencing an enormous budget crunch – the overall budget isn’t increasing and all funds require some kind of internal tradeoff Air Force Times, 7 (James Hannah, AP – “Air Force Looking For Ways to Cut Costs”)

Air Force bases…in fuel a year

AFRICOM involves Air Force equipment and basing BBC Montitoring, 12/8/07 – “Tanzanian Islamic paper rejects proposed US Africa command” – Lexis

Dangers of Africom…also be needed

Empirically proven – current efforts have involved the Air Force Inside the Air Force, 11/16/07 – “USAF TO BEGIN FORMAL STAND UP OF AFRICOM AIR ARM IN DECEMBER” Lexis

AMSTEIN AIR FORCE…quick,” he said

Airpower is key to sustain US leadership and maintain a credible deterrent Hazdra, 1 (Maj Richard J Hazdra, USAF, “Air Mobility – the Key to the US National Security Strategy” August 01 [|http://www.au.af.mil/au/aul/aupress/////fairchild_papers/Hazdra/Hazdra.pdf)] In shaping the international…to be successful