Glenbrook+South+LP+-+Winston+Luo+&+Grant+Peretz+aff

Round 5 vs. Meadows BS:
Same Vaccines Affirmative (structure slightly different, but largely/all same cards)

Round 1:
Read Vaccines AFF

= = =VACCINES AFF=

AIDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD AND ALL STATUS QUO MEASURES WILL FAIL—VACCINES ARE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR A CURE

 * __ BERKELEY __****__ 12-18-2007 __**(Dr. Seth, chief executive and president of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, Washington Post)

First, there was the announcement ... __eliminate the need for all others__.

FINANCIAL TIMES 3-3-2005
__For the billions of potential victims of Aids__ ... __antiretroviral Aids drugs cheaply__.

AND, THIS INADEQUATE VACCINE RESEARCH IS FOCUSED ON STRAINS COMMON TO THE UNITED STATES, NOT AFRICA

 * __ CRADDOCK 2007 __**(Susan, Department of Gender, Women, and Sexuality Studies, University of Minnesota, Social Science & Medicine, March)

In the meantime, the interrelation ... regions of Africa and Southeast Asia.

FIRST, AIDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA AND ALL PREVENTIVE MEASURES WILL FAIL—ONLY A VACCINE CAN SUCCEED

 * __ BERKELEY 2007 __**(Dr. Seth, President of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, November 21, [|http://www.iavi.org/viewfile.cfm?fid=47261)]

“We at IAVI are encouraged ... for those who need it most.”

AND, THE AIDS PANDEMIC IS UNIQUE—IT WILL NOT BURN OUT OR LEVEL OFF

 * __ PIOT 2005 __** (Dr. Peter, Director of UNAIDS, “Why AIDS is Exceptional,” Feb 8, [|http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/LSEPublicLecturesAndEvents/pdf/20050208-PiotAIDS2.pdf)]

A first and crucial way ... __expand for decades!__

200 MILLION PEOPLE WILL BE LIVING WITH HIV BY 2020—THIS REDUCES THE OVERALL IMMUNITY OF THE HUMAN SPECIES AND INCREASES THE RISK OF PANDEMICS FROM RE-EMERGING, NEW, AND CURRENT DISEASES

 * __ NEWSDAY 5-31-2001 __**([|http://www.aegis.com/news/NEWSDAY/2001/ND010505.html)]

Today, with the AIDS ... popping out of our DNA to cause disease.

THE IMPACT OUTWEIGHS ALL DISADVANTAGES—EMERGING DISEASES ARE THE GREATEST THREAT TO HUMAN SURVIVAL

 * __ ZIMMERMAN AND ZIMMERMAN 1996 __**(Barry and David, both have M.S. degrees from Long Island University, Killer Germs p 132)

Then came AIDS…... Robin Marantz Hening.

AIDS HOLLOWS OUT AFRICAN MILITARIES AND CRUSHES DETERRENCE—THIS RESULTS IN WAR

 * __ SINGER 2002 __**(Peter, John M. Olin Post-doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, Survival, Spring. This is not the bioethicist/activist Peter Singer.)

The __results are devastating ...__ rates as classified information.25

THIS ESCALATES TO NUCLEAR WAR

 * __ DEUTSCH 2002 __**(Jeffrey, Political Risk Consultant and Ph.D in Economics, The Rabid Tiger Newsletter, Vol 2, No 9, Nov 18, [|http://list.webengr.com/pipermail/picoipo/2002-November/000208.html)]

The Rabid Tiger Project believes ... people love to go fishing.

ALL OTHER WAR IMPACTS HAVE A ZERO PROBABILITY—DETERRENCE PREVENTS ESCALATION

 * __ MUELLER 1988 __**(John, Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester, International Security, Fall)

In the second part, these ... born of boredom.

AND, AIDS CAUSES DEFORESTATION AND DESTROYS THE ENVIRONMENT

 * __ OGLETHORPE AND GELMAN 2006 __** (Judy, World Wildlife Fund; Nancy, Africa Biodiversity Collaborative Group, Frontiers in Ecology and Environment, April 2006)

Behind these broad population... Center for Research on Women 2004).

DEFORESTATION IS THE KEY TO ALL SPECIES LOSS—COLLAPSE OF PLANT LIFE WILL EVENTUALLY DESTROY ALL LIFE ON EARTH—THIS OUTWEIGHS ANY DISAD IMPACT

 * __ WATSON 2006 __**(Captain Paul, Founder and President of Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, Last Mod 9-17, [|http://www.eco-action.org/dt/beerswil.html)]

The facts are clear. __More plant ... massive human destruction__.

==Plan: The United States federal government, through the Partnership for AIDS Vaccine Evaluation, should establish an advance purchase commitment for human immunodeficiency virus clade C vaccines for Africa south of the Sahara. Vaccine candidates should be given a fast-track review evaluation.==

ADVANCE MARKET COMMITMENTS ENCOURAGE VACCINE RESEARCH AND DISTRIBUTION—THIS WOULD PREVENT MILLIONS OF INFECTIONS

 * __ I.A.V.I. 2005 __** (International AIDS Vaccine Initiative Policy Brief, “Advance Market Commitments: Helping to accelerate AIDS vaccine development,” November, [|http://www.iavi.org/file.cfm?fid=35155)]

Researchers face significant challenges... __infections__ and AIDS-related deaths.

FAST-TRACK TESTING WOULD CUT YEARS OFF THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS AND QUICKLY RESULT IN AN EFFECTIVE VACCINE—EVEN A WEAK VACCINE WITH POOR DISTRIBUTION WOULD STOP AIDS

 * __ BERKELEY 2007 __**(Seth, president and CEO of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, Foreign Policy, May 1)

__An AIDS vaccine is ...__ so desperately needs.

EVEN A PARTIALLY EFFECTIVE VACCINE SOLVES AND OUTWEIGHS ANY TURNS

 * __ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology 2005 __** (Imperial College, University of London, “Imperfect Vaccines Could Reduce HIV Prevalence and AIDS Deaths” Jan 31, [|http://www.hivandhepatitis.com/vaccines/013105_f.html)]

__The__ potential __public health I____ ... __ deterministic model.

AND, ADVANCE MARKET COMMITMENTS WOULD CREATE A PROFIT INCENTIVE FOR SECOND-GENERATION VACCINES

 * __ I.A.V.I. 2005 __** (International AIDS Vaccine Initiative Policy Brief, “Advance Market Commitments: Helping to accelerate AIDS vaccine development,” November, [|http://www.iavi.org/file.cfm?fid=35155)]

One of the major challenges... __improved AIDS vaccines__.

U.S. LEADERSHIP IS CRITICAL TO A VACCINE—NO DISEASE HAS BEEN ERADICATED WITHOUT IT

 * __ LUGAR 2007 __**(US Senator Richard, Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb 21)

__Smallpox is all but eradicated, ...__ suppliers and donor countries.

ONLY THE UNITED STATES CAN ELIMINATE AIDS—GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IS KEY AND NO OTHER COUNTRY CAN DO IT

 * __ GARRISON 2004 __**(Jim, president of the State of the World Forum, Excerpt from __America as Empire__, [|http://www.wie.org/j24/garrison.asp)]

The major difference ... global governance.

THE CDC HAS UNIQUE HIV VACCINE RESEARCH EXPERIENCE

 * __ CDC 2007 __**(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “CDC HIV/AIDS” October 16, [|http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/research/index.htm)]

The intervention most ... __effective HIV vaccine__.

THE CDC IS THE BEST AGENCY IN THE WORLD TO DO THE PLAN—THIS EVIDENCE ACCOUNTS FOR CRITICISM AND CONCLUDES AFF

 * __ SADLER 2000 __**(John, MD, Independent Dialysis Foundation, Seminars in Dialysis (journal), March-April)

__The quality of CDC scientific ...__ from this vital resource.

THE GLOBE AND MAIL 8-19-2006
None of this, ... in the spotlight."

THIS PRE-EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE IS KEY TO VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS

 * __ BASS 2002 __**(Emily, Senior writer of the IAVI Report, AIDScience, December)

While making, purchasing ... __once a vaccine is licensed__.

USAID INVOLVEMENT IS KEY TO LEADERSHIP AND DISTRIBUTION—DESPITE SHORTCOMINGS, USAID IS STILL THE MOST EFFECTIVE AGENCY FOR PUBLIC HEALTH ASSISTANCE—IT HAS THE MOST RESOURCES AND THE BEST ORGANIZATION

 * __ BATE 2007 __**(Roger, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, January)

__Despite all its shortcomings, ... and effective organization__.

FIRST, NO DISAD CAN TURN THE CASE—VACCINES WILL BE DISTRIBUTED EVEN IN THE MIDST OF CRISIS—WE ALSO DON’T LINK TO SPENDING OR AID TRADEOFF

 * __ BERNDT AND HERVITZ 2005 __**(Ernst, Prof of Applied Economics at MIT; John, Lawyer and Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University Law Center, Health Affairs, May/June)

The rationale for advance-purchase ... malaria and HIV.

AND, WAR DOES NOT TURN THE CASE—NEW STUDIES PROVE IT DOES NOT CAUSE HIV SPREAD

 * __ REUTERS 6-28-2007 __**([|http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N27308795.htm)]

__War, refugee crises and ... inadequate study methods__.

=CONGO AFF= Plan Text

PLAN: The United States Department of Energy should assist the Democratic Republic of the Congo in implementing the most recent International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear safety safeguards at the Kinshasa Center for Nuclear Studies.

1ac w/ cites

Contention 1: terrorism

THE MOST DANGEROUS NUCLEAR REACTOR IN THE WORLD IS IN THE CONGO. POLITICAL INSTABILITY, EXTREME POVERTY, AND THE LACK OF BASIC SAFEGUARDS MAKE DISASTER INEVITABLE, BUT LOCAL SCIENTISTS WILL INSIST ON POWERING UP THE DEATHTRAP BECAUSE THE U.S. IS NOT COMMITTED TO THE SAFE DEVELOPMENT OF CONGOLESE NUCLEAR POWER. SULLIVAN, 2K1 (Tim, AP Writer, "Congo Nurses An Old Nuclear Reactor," 7/26, [|http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010726/wl/nuclear_congo_1.html)]

"In a crumbling concrete building…10 to 15 years of Congolese atom-splitting."

REGARDLESS OF RHETORIC, TERRORISTS DO NOT YET HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN FOCUSING ON FORMER SOVIET STATES WHERE SECURITY IS STRONG. THE KINSHASA REACTOR IS UNIQUELY VULNERABLE, AND IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE AL QAEDA IS ARMED WITH AFRICAN HEAT. DALY ET. AL, 2K5 (Sara, Research Analyst at RAND, former CIA terrorism analyst, Middle East and South Asia, former CIA counterterrorism representative, Department of State; John Parachini, Director, Intelligence Policy Center, RAND National Security Research Division, former Executive Director, Washington office, Monterey Institute of International Studies' Center for Nonproliferation Studies; William Rosenau, Political Scientist at RAND, former Senior Policy Adviser in the State Department's counterterrorism office; "Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, and the Kinshasa Reactor: Implications of Three Case Studies for Combating Nuclear Terrorism," [|http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/2005/RAND_DB458.pdf)]

"A third hypothesis is that…accountability systems proved to be limited."

THE KINSHASA REACTOR IS NOT MEETING IAEA SAFEGUARD STANDARDS, AND CURRENT POLICIES WILL FAIL TO MAKE THE SITE SAFE. THIS MAKES TERRORIST SMUGGLING INEVITABLE, AND INVALIDATES IAEA INSPECTION LEGITIMACY. CRAIL AND BERGENAS, 2K7 (Peter, Research Assistant at Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and Johan, Research Assistant at Center for Nonproliferation Studies, "Uranium Smuggling Allegations Raise Questions Concerning Nuclear Security In The Democratic Republic Of Congo," WMD Insights, April, [|http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/wmdi070403a.htm)]

"Given the details that have unfolded…security of the DRC's nuclear resources."

THE U.S. IS LOSING ALL CREDIBILITY ON PROLIFERATION BECAUSE OF A FAILURE TO SUPPORT NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS AT UNSAFE FACILITIES. CRACKING DOWN IN THE CONGO IS THE NECESSARY PREREQUISITE TO ANY ATTEMPT TO STOP NUCLEAR MATERIALS FROM GETTING INTO THE HANDS OF TERRORISTS, AND ONCE THEY CROSS THIS THRESHOLD THE FIREWORKS WILL BEGIN. CROWLEY, 2K2 (Michael, senior editor at The New Republic, "W. Forgets the Nuclear Threat," Old Guard, 9/09, [|http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20020909&s=crowley090902)]

"But it's a win that almost didn't…underfunded and largely ignored, for years."

TERRORISTS ARE WILLING TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES, AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS ARE A DIME A DOZEN. COHEN, 2K5 (Ariel, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at Heritage Foundation, 5/20, "Preventing a Nightmare Scenario: Terrorist Attacks Using Russian Nuclear Weapons and Materials," [|http://www.heritage.org/Research/HomelandSecurity/bg1854.cfm)]

"In 2003, Sheikh Nasir bin Hamid…documented cases of HEU theft."

AND, GROUPS ARE MOVING ON THE CONGO TO EXPLOIT THE REACTOR. REUTERS, 2K7 (Joe Bavier, "Congo scientist planned to export uranium-minister," 3/08, [|http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L0845529.htm)]

"A government minister in Congo…minerals,' he told reporters."

A NUCLEAR TERROR ATTACK CAUSES MISCALCULATION AND FULL ESCALATION TO NUCLEAR WAR. SPEICE, 2K6 (Patrick, J.D. Candidate 2006, Marshall-Wythe School of Law, College of William and Mary, "NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS," William & Mary Law Review, Feb, l/n)

"The potential consequences of the unchecked spread… escalate to the use of nuclear weapons."

ACCESS TO URANIUM IS THE FINAL STEP IN CONSTRUCTING A WEAPON. OUR TIMEFRAME IS HOURS. TAYLOR 96 (Theodore, former nuke designer and deputy director of the Defense Nuclear Agency, "Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons," july, [|http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/1996/07/00_taylor_nuclear-power.htm)]

"there are many possible…nuclear weapon states"

AND, THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM DEMANDS ACTION NOW. ANY HESITATION TO ACT AGAINST LOOSE URANIUM MAKES OUR IMPACTS INEVITABLE. CROWLEY 2 (Michael, senior editor at TNR, "w. forgets the nuclear threat" old guard, 9/09, tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20020909&s=crowley090902

"that's much too long to wait…not tomorrow. Today"

contention 2: proliferation

THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY IS UP FOR REVIEW, BUT NOW IS THE KEY TIME TO RESTORE REGIME CREDIBILITY. JOHNSON, 2K7 (Rebecca, PhD is the executive director of the Acronym Institute, "Looking Towards 2010: What does the Nonproliferation Regime need?," Disarmament Diplomacy, Spring, Iss. 84, [|http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd84/84npt.htm)]

"Difficult though it may be…after the NPT was concluded."

UNFORTUNATELY, THE U.S. IS GOING IT ALONE ON NONPROLIFERATION. FAILURE TO ACTIVELY PROMOTE IAEA NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS COLLAPSES ANY HOPE OF REVIVING THE NPT. WASHINGTON POST, 2K (William Drozdiak, "Missile Shield Eroding U.S. Arms Control Goals," 6/15, l/n)

"Elbaradei had proposed this year…and accept IAEA inspections."

CONGO HAS A UNIQUE PLACE IN THE NONPROLIFERATION SYSTEM. INCREASING SAFEGUARD CREDIBILITY IN AFRICA IS CRUCIAL TO N.P.T. CREDIBILITY. KAMANDA, 2K5 (Gerard, Minister of Scientific Research and Technology of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Interview in CTBTO Newsletter, Issue 6, July, [|http://www.ctbto.org/reference/outreach/260705_spectrum6_web_final.pdf)]

"Q: The Treaty of Pelindaba…Conference of IAEA in September 2004."

INTERNATIONAL NON-PROLIF CREDIBILITY IS THE ONLY WAY TO PREVENT ROGUE STATES FROM SECRETLY DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS. EVERY ALTERNATIVE TO STRENGTHENED SAFEGUARDS WILL FAIL. WASHINGTON POST, 2K (William Drozdiak, "Missile Shield Eroding U.S. Arms Control Goals," 6/15, l/n)

"Many diplomats say the challenge…is a fundamental American interest.'"

AND RAPID, COVERT PROLIFERATION IS UNIQUELY DESTABILIZING. EVEN REALISTS AGREE THAT WILDFIRE PROLIFERATION MUST BE PREVENTED. ROBERTS, 99 (Brad, research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses in Alexandria, Virginia, and a member of the editorial board of The Nonproliferation Review, "Proliferation and Nonproliferation in the 1990s," Nonproliferation Review, Fall)

"What then is at stake…the world would change fundamentally."

THE IMPACT IS ESCALATORY NUCLEAR WAR. UTGOFF, 2K2 (Victor, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses, "Proliferation, Missile Defence, and American Ambitions," Survival, V. 44, Summer)

"First, the dynamics of getting to… bury the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations."

Nuclear prolif damages environment

Biggest health risk – extinction

SOLVENCY

ONLY THE UNITED STATES HAS THE TECHNICAL EXPERTISE AND EXPERIENCE TO INSPECT AND MONITOR FOREIGN NUCLEAR FACILITIES. EMPIRICALLY THIS IMPROVES SAFETY AND EFFICIENCY, AND OTHER COUNTRIES WILL MODEL THE IAEA SAFEGUARD SYSTEM IMPLEMENTED BY THE PLAN. FERTEL, 99 (Marvin, Senior Vice President, Nuclear Infrastructure Support & International Programs at Nuclear Energy Institute, "Testimony for the Record," http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/speechesandtestimony/1999/senatetestimonyfertelextended, 3/17)

"The foundation for the United States'…technical cooperation on safety related issues."

ONLY A BILATERAL FRAMEWORK FOR ESTABLISHING PROLIFERATION LEADERSHIP WILL SOLVE. MOVING FROM UNILATERALISM TO MULTILATERAL FRAMEWORKS WILL FAIL BECAUSE U.S. POLICYMAKERS DISTRUST THE INTENTIONS OF EXTRANEOUS POLITICAL ACTORS, AND WILL NOT BE WILLING TO ENFORCE THE NONPROLIFERATION AGENDA. THIS INTRODUCES DEVASTATING DELAYS THAT GUT SOLVENCY. JOFFE, 2K4 (Alexander, Ph.D. directs the West Asia Environmental Security Project, "Incorporating Environmental Considerations into Arms Control," Disarmament Diplomacy, Iss. 77, May/June, [|http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd77/77aj.htm)]

"These inevitable political developments…profitably inform arms control negotiations."

2ac Tricks, Add-Ons,

they kicked terrorism

Answers To Off Case Args

No link on tradeoff,

Answers To Major Case Args

Waltz prolif good cards don't apply – middle east is fast prolif, uniquely destabilizing Fast prolif undermines deterrence etc.