New+Trier+BR+-+Vanessa+Bernick+&+Rob+Rein+aff

SMOKING AFF-- BROKEN RD. 4

Contention One- Inherency

Tabacoo companies are dramatically expanding their presence in SSA, where tens of thousands of youth start smoking every day

Wachira Kigotho, All Africa News Agency, 2/6/2001 According to a recent World Bank report…the sub-region are regular smokers.

Now is a key time- smoking rates in the developing world are skyrocketing- African nations need assistance to combat tobacco companie’s influence

Charlie Schmidt, April 2007 “Public Support for Smoking Bans Diffusing to Developing Countries” But that disparity pales…turn those numbers around.”

Contention Tw- Health

Two impacts:

a. Smoking kills

Within 20 years smoking will be leading cause of death in SSA- leads to heath gap between rich/poor- impact is half a billion deaths

Wachira Kigotho, All Africa News Agency, 2/6/2001 The emerging scenario is that on…says the World Bank Report.

Our timeframe is quick- rates increasing now, without action smoking epidemic will be felt soon

Akinbode Oluwafemi, 6/20/2003, “Regional Summary for the African Region” With the exception of South Africa…sooner rather than later.

The best science on our side- smoking is exacberated in Africa, and public health crisis

William Onzivu, World Health Organization, Winter 2001, Georgia Journal of I and Comparitive Law It is now widely accepted…detriment of public health.

b. child mortality

smoking increases that in SSA

Wachira Kigotho, All Africa News Agency, 2/6/2001 Researchers warn that…expected to die in infancy.

High infant mortality/death rates are leading indicator of state collapse in SSA- plan key

Lawrence O. Gostin, @ John Hopkins U, “Why Rich Countries Should care about the world’s least healthy people” July 2007 Extremely poor health in other parts…help according to their needs.

Deutsch

State collapse in Africa most likely to enable nuclear terrorism

Thomas Dempsey, April 2006, “Counterterrorism in African failed states: challenges and potential solutions” While both hubs and nodes…complex and difficult task.

Terrorism leads to nuclear war

Speice, 2006 Accordingly, there is a…nuclear weapons. 53

Contention Three- I-Health Law

US tobacco policy is hypocritical, protecting US citizens from tobacco while pushing it oversees- kills the strength of the FCTC

USA Today, 2/12/2003 In recent weeks, New York City, Boston…year, has gotten its way.

International tobacco control assistance key to strong FCTC- effective tobacco control is impossible without commitment to international anti-smoking assistance

Canadian Cancer Society, August 2K, “Targets for Transnational tobacco Control” The Transnational Problem Countries with strong…international tobacco control measures.

Strong FCTC key to evolving norm of global health law through the framework of the WHO

Garrett Mehl, Geneva Headquarters of the WHO, Spring 2005, “Controlling Tobacco” Tobacco is the leading cause…potential to save lives.

FCTC is key test case for all international health law- key to set a precedent that enables the WHO to enforce strong health regulations in other areas.

Allyn Taylor 2003, at John Hopkins Public Health U, p. 226-7 As described above, the global context…organizational and political capacity.

Strong international health law key to prevent and contain avian flu outbreaks

David Fidler, Indiana University School of Law, January 2004 As was the case when SARS…what measures to take.

Mutation of bird flu inevitable and pandemic could happen now

Satish Chandra, national advisor of India, 2004 If the possibility of the collapse…toll could run into hundreds of millions.

An avian flue outbreak causes global economic crisis

Jeffrey Levi, PhD at America’s Health, wwwhealthyamericans.org H5N1 “Bird flu” is being monitored as…major economic recession. Extinction

Bearden 2K

Avian flu outbreak kills millions

Satish Chandra, National Security Advisor of India, 5/10/2004 This scenario, as frightening…mortality rate is estimated.

Strong FCTC implementation solves cigarette smuggling

Brent Pickett, U Wyoming, 2006, Cambridge Review of Int’l Affairs Other provisions in the treaty address…provide assistance in this task.

Key to solve terrorism

Vito Fossella, US representative, 4/4/2008 Fossella said the cigarette black market…national security interest.”

Thus, the plan:

The United States federal government should provide smoking cessation assistance to the nations designated by the resolution.

Contention Five- solvency

US has a unique responsibility to fund and promote international tobacco cessation programs- key to solve the double standard

National Cancer Policy Board 1998, “Taking Action to Reduce Tobacco Use” Only 4-5 percent of the more than…control are now warranted.

Targeted smoking cessation programs in SSA will be effective- key to avoid millions of tobacco deaths

Samira Asma and Linda Pederson, Office on Smoking and Health at the CDC, Winter 1999 People’s knowledge of the health risks…epidemic in the developing world may be arrested.

Only focusing on cessation provides tangible short-term benefits in terms of lives saved

Bejamin Mason Meier, Columbia U, Winter 2005, Yale Journal of Health Policy There is clear evidence that smoking cessation…cannot obtain the institutional support they need.

New Trier (All Teams) – Affirmative – Kenya Family Planning

Contention One – Health

Initially note, the gag rule has resulted in drastic cuts in public health assistance in Kenya. There is a lack of contraceptives available and has been an increase in unsafe and illegal abortions

Margie Peterson, The Morning Call (Allentown, Pennsylvania), May 3, 2007 [“Gag rule keeps birth control from women in need,” Lexis]

When you have seen the mangled

Specifically, the gag rule has devastated HIV/AIDS prevention in Kenya. Few clinics are open and little contraception and ARVs are available

Global Gag Rule Impact Project, a collaborative research effort led by Population Action International in partnership with Ipas and Planned Parenthood Federation of America, 2006 [“Access Denied: The Impact of the Global Gag Rule in Kenya,” http://www.globalgagrule.org/pdfs/case_studies/GGRcase_kenya_2006.pdf]

By crippling the country’s primary

Future AIDS epidemics in Kenya will have devastating effects on the agriculture sector, harming food security and destroying the farming cycle, which is critical to the Kenyan economy

Robert K. Nyaga, Social Sector Division of the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, 2004 [“HIV/AIDS in Kenya: A Review of Research and Policy Issues,” KIPPRA Discussion Paper No. 38, June, http://www.kippra.org/Download/DPNO38.pdf]

Agriculture employs a large segment (80%)

Kenya economic growth is key to the region’s economy, solves terrorism, and proliferation

USAID, 2000 [“USAID/Kenya: Integrated Strategic Plan, 2001-2005,” http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDABU260.pdf]

Kenya is the most important country

This crushes the global economy

Donald Payne, congressman D-NJ, 2003 ["Congress and Africa: Perspectives of Congressman Payne and CBC," 4-30, Lexis]

From the war on terrorism to the supply

Bearden

Contention Two – Population

The lack of contraception resulting from the gag rule is causing a massive population explosion in Kenya

Jim Motavalli, Editor of E: The Environmental Magazine, 2006 [“Shaking the Baby Tree: If There's a "Depopulation Bomb, It Has a Very Long Fuse" The Environmental Magazine, Nov/Dec, Vol 17, Issue 6, pgs 26-32, Proquest]

Clearly, high birth rates contribute

The only thing that can prevent further population explosion is lowering the fertility rate

John Blacker, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 2007 [“Letter: Questions need to be raised about Kenya's population growth rate; Letters to the Editor,” The Independent (London), January 23, Lexis]

Sir: In your articles on the current drought

Conflicts over resources and land results in civil war and genocide

Bill Berkeley, Freelance writer in New York City who has been reporting in African on his Patterson fellowship, 1995 [“Kenya: Barely Escaping Rwanda,” The Alicia Patterson Foundation Reporter, Vol 17, Num 1, http://www.aliciapatterson.org/APF1701/Berkeley/Berkeley.html]

But this is none of those exhausted battlegrounds

Kenya stability is key to the stability of the region

Leonard H. Robinson Jr., President and CEO of the National Summit on Africa, based in Washington, D.C. He also is a former two-time deputy assistant secretary of state for African affairs, 1999 [“America's chance in Africa,” Baltimore Sun, October 24, Lexis]

If Albright is not successful, Kenya's

Deutsch

Contention Three – Terrorism

Kenya is suspicious of the proposed AFRICOM – this is harming US relations with Kenya

East African, Africa News, August 14, 2007 [“U.S. Allays Fears Over New Military Body,” All Africa, Lexis]

Africom represents a potential threat to the

US-Kenya relations are critical to prevent Kenyan terrorism – spreading US influence in the country through development programs is the only way to solve

The Nation, Africa News, 2003 [“'Secrets' behind US, UK Anti-Terror War in Kenya,” All Africa, June 22, Lexis]

A detailed review of the reflections on Kenya is quite revealing

Kenya is a breeding grounds for terrorism because if its strategic importance, easy targets, and lack of security in the country

Hared H. Adan, Major in the Kenyan Army, 2005 [“Combating Transnational Terrorism in Kenya,” Thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A436675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]

Kenya’s geography and geographic location contribute to

Kenya is key to global war on terror

Hared H. Adan, Major in the Kenyan Army, 2005 [“Combating Transnational Terrorism in Kenya,” Thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A436675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]

Kenya also joined the US in the GWOT, playing a pivotal

Terrorism causes human extinction

Yonah Alexander, Director, Inter-University for Terrorism Studies, 2003 [Jerusalem Post, 8-25, Lexis]

Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have

Independently, terrorism causes the U.S. to lash out, precipitating global war

Nicole Schwartz-Morgan, Assistant Prof Politics and Econ – Royal Military College of Canada, 2001 [Wild Globalization and Terrorism, http://www.wfs.org/mmmorgan.htm]

The terrorist act can reactivate atavistic defense mechanisms

Contention Four – Solvency

US family planning assistance is the anchor of the global population control regime – no other donor even comes close to US expertise and technical capacity

Wendy Turnbull, policy analyst at PAI, January 1996

Currently, about three-quarters of the roughly

The U.S. is the most important donor – it has 30 years of experience with on the ground provision of aid and networks that other donors can’t replicate

Population Action International, 1998 [“Paying their Fair Share - Donor Countries and International Population Assistance”, 3/8, http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Reports/Paying_their_Fair_Share/UNITED_STATES.shtml]

The U.S. population assistance effort still leads the way among

Plan:

The United States federal government should substantially increase its support of nongovernmental organizations located in the Republic of Kenya which do not comply with the Mexico City Policy

International Fiat Bad

A. 193 countries

Matt Rosenberg, professional geographer and the author of two books about geography, 5/9/2007 http://geography.about.com/cs/countries/a/numbercountries.htm

A very frequent geographical question is "How many countries are in the world?" Different numbers pop up when one inquires or reads about the number of countries in the world. Each source you use often yields a different answer. Ultimately, the best answer is that there are 194 countries in the world.

B. 55, 282 types of intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations

Union of International Associations, 2001 [http://www.uia.org/statistics/organizations/11.1.1a.pdf

Even when the most predictable countries promise health aid to Africa they never actually give it

The Nation (Kenya) – AAGM 7/1/2007

Gordon Brown finally succeeded Tony Blair

Environment Add-On Kenyan overpopulation destroys biodiversity

Phillip Cheborgei, The Nation (Nairobi), 1999 [“African development pegged to usage of biological resources,” Africa News, 4/22, Lexis] The prospects of successful economic development Ecological imbalances in Kenya through overuse of land causes worldwide extinction

Miller and Yeager, Africa-Carribean Institute, 1994 [Kenya: The Quest for Prosperity] The ODA study warns: Everywhere there is competition Kenya must curb population growth to save 5 keystone species

The Nation, Africa News, 1999 [“Depletion of Rare Plants Alarms Experts,” July 29, Lexis] Conservationists are alarmed by the fast pace of disappearance Loss of a keystone species causes extinction

Edward O. Wilson, Professor and Curator of Entomology at the Museum of Comparative Zoology at Harvard, 1993 [“Building an Ethic,” http://www.defenders.org/bio-ee04.html] Humanity coevolved with the rest of life on this particular

Somalia Add On

US action in Kenya is critical to build trust with Somalia to have peace talks in Somalia – the lack of these talks would result in conflict in Somalia that would draw in major powers

Strategic Survey, September 2007 [Volume 107, Issue 1, September, pages 251 – 282]

Who should broker any talks is an open question....Such an escalation may well be in the cards.

A2: Politics The house and senate just voted to repeal the gag rule – the plan has bipartisan and public support

Tod Preston, Population Action International, September 7, 2007 [“Congress Votes to Repeal Global Gag Rule,” http://www.rhrealitycheck.org/blog/2007/09/07/congress-votes-to-repeal-global-gag-rule] Last night, despite President Bush's veto threat, the Kenyan assistance has bipartisan support in Congress

The East African Standard, Speech by Michael E Ranneberger, the American Ambassador to Kenya, 2006 [“‘I Will Support Kenya's Vision for Growth,’” Africa News, All Africa, August 7, Lexis] I am going to Kenya with a very positive

Random A2: K Cards Couching reproductive health in the context of overpopulation is crucial to mobilize resources and support – without this context, waning public interest will collapse effective family planning

Amy O. Tsui, population studies at Johns Hopkins, 2005 [Studies in Family Planning 36.4, December] When it began, the family planning movement Worldwide survey data disproves your coercion argument – rigorous opinion surveys show that women in Sub-Saharan African women voluntarily choose contraceptives – coercion is prohibited by US law

Susan A. Cohen, policy development associate at the Alan Guttmacher Institute, 1997 Coercive family planning practices are expressly Permute – do both – do all of the plan and all of the alternative that doesn’t include vote neg. Only a combination of positive and negative imagery is effective – positive images alone create inattention to sacrificial atrocity and violence, resulting in African exploitation

Gbemisola Olujobi, Pulitzer Fellow at USC Annenberg School for Communication, 2006 [“The Africa You Need to Know,” http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/pdfs/The_Africa_You_Need_To_Know.pdf] Facts are sacred and the truth must be told. Despite generous Reducing all issues to questions of representations ignores the real political and social issues on the ground that can be helped by the plan – there is more to the situation than just the discourse

Achille Mbembe, Executive Director of the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa, used to be Asst. Prof of History at Columbia University, 2001 [On the Postcolony, p. 5-6] The first has to do with the extraordinary poverty Exclusive focus on representations erodes meaningful reversal of the structures of exploitation – discursive focus must supplement, not replace, material discussion of reform

Giroux, Chair Professorship of Edcuation and Cultural Studies at Penn State, 2006 [Henry, “Dirty Democracy and State of Terrorism,” Comparative Studies of South Asia, 163-177] Abstracted from the ideal of public commitment, Plan is the best form of biopolitics—we’re the middle ground between the overpopulation caused by the alternative and the eugenic policies of authoritarian governments

Purdy 6 (Jedediah, New America Foundation, July 1, The New Biopolitics, [|http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2006/the_new_biopolitics)] But, along with electronic commerce, transnational fanaticism,

New Trier (All Teams) – Affirmative – Kenyan Muslim Family Planning

The United States federal government should fund nongovernmental organizations associated with the Islamic faith located in the Republic of Kenya to assist in disease treatment and prevention

Contention One is Current Aid

Initially note, we’ve drastically increased our military aid to Kenya – it’s due to expand

Kevin J Kelley, The Nation (Nairobi), September 9, 2007 [“Steep Rise in U.S. Military Aid,” All Africa, http://allafrica.com/stories/200709090014.html]

The United States has increased its… according to the CDI analysis.

The USAID already requested an increase in funding for Kenya in the 2008 budget

USAID 2007 [fiscal year 2008 budget request] http://www.usaid.gov/policy/budget/cbj2008/fy2008cbj_highlights.pdf

The FY 2008 budget for Africa… of the FY 2008 budget.

Contention Two is Religion

The closure of Muslim NGOs has harmed relations between Christians and Muslims in Kenya

Hassan Mwakimako, Zentrum Moderner Orient, Berlin, Germany, 2007 [“Christian-Muslim Relations in Kenya: A Catalogue of Events and Meanings,” journal Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations, Volume 18, Issue 2 April, pages 287 – 307, Taylor-Francis Informaworld]

During the early twentieth century… the propagation of Islam.

Religious disparities in Kenya result in anti-government resentment and conflict

David C. Sperling, Ph.D. Founder and Teacher, Strathmore University, Kenya, 2006 [“Islam and the Religious Dimension of Conflict in Kenya,” Dec 22, http://muslimsinkenya.wordpress.com/2006/12/]

Another basic premise of the paper… have been identified and addressed.

Ethnic conflict in Kenya results in civil war

Bill Berkeley, Freelance writer in New York City who has been reporting in African on his Patterson fellowship, 1995 [“Kenya: Barely Escaping Rwanda,” The Alicia Patterson Foundation Reporter, Vol 17, Num 1, http://www.aliciapatterson.org/APF1701/Berkeley/Berkeley.html]

But this is none of those exhausted battlegrounds… affiliation rather than competence.

Kenya stability is key to the stability of the region

Leonard H. Robinson Jr., President and CEO of the National Summit on Africa, based in Washington, D.C. He also is a former two-time deputy assistant secretary of state for African affairs, 1999 [“America's chance in Africa,” Baltimore Sun, October 24, Lexis]

If Albright is not successful, Kenya's… and in Rwanda and Burundi.

African conflicts go nuclear

Dr. Jeffery Deutsch, Founder – Rabid Tiger Project, 2001 [Rabid Tiger Newsletter, Vol. 2, No. 7, 11-18, http://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html]

The Rabid Tiger Project believes that… some people love to go fishing.

Contention Three is Resentment

The ban of Muslim NGOs in Kenya has resulted in Muslim resentment against the US

Arye Oded, Institute of Asian and African Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2000 [Islam and Politics in Kenya, http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=105963685, Questia]

On 8 September, nearly a month after… between Supkem and Imam Shee is paradigmatic

Scenario One is Terrorism

This resentment hinders effective terrorism operations in Kenya by denying cooperation and use of military bases

Hared H. Adan, Major in the Kenyan Army, 2005 [“Combating Transnational Terrorism in Kenya,” Thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A436675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]

Diplomacy is the instrument of power… support contributes to the dissent.

This results in terrorism

Hared H. Adan, Major in the Kenyan Army, 2005 [“Combating Transnational Terrorism in Kenya,” Thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A436675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]

By focusing on front organizations and… to correct this misconception.

Kenya is a breeding grounds for terrorism because of its strategic importance, easy targets, and lack of security in the country

Hared H. Adan, Major in the Kenyan Army, 2005 [“Combating Transnational Terrorism in Kenya,” Thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A436675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]

Kenya’s geography and geographic location… infiltrate into the country.

Terrorists will get WMDs

Stephen Mbogo, Cybercast News Service Correspondent, July 6, 2007 [“Africa Faces Potential WMD Terror Risk, Security Analysts Say,” http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=/ForeignBureaus/archive/200707/INT20070706a.html]

With the "globalization" of terrorism and… or local strategic facilities.

Kenya is key to global war on terror

Hared H. Adan, Major in the Kenyan Army, 2005 [“Combating Transnational Terrorism in Kenya,” Thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A436675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]

Kenya also joined the US… recruiting grounds for terrorists.

Terrorism escalates to a nuclear exchange

Patrick F. Speice Jr., JD Candidate at College of William and Mary, 2006 [“Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation,” William & Mary Law Review, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, February]

Accordingly, there is a significant and… the use of nuclear weapons. 53

Scenario Two is Hegemony

Popularity in Kenya is key to establishing a lily pad in Kenya

Peter Halvorsen, US Naval Institute Proceedings, 2005 [“Making a Case for Naval Lily Pads,” Vol. 131, Issue 3, March 20, p. 84-86, Proquest]

The advantages of a lily pad are… Force for the Horn of Africa.

Lily pad bases are critical to military flexibility, power projection, and overall hegemony

Peter Halvorsen, US Naval Institute Proceedings, 2005 [“Making a Case for Naval Lily Pads,” Vol. 131, Issue 3, March 20, p. 84-86, Proquest]

Ongoing U.S. military operations in Afghanistan… liberal governments in the region.

Collapse of hegemony results in apolarity, risking multiple scenarios for nuclear war

Niall Ferguson, Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, 2004 [“A world without power,” Foreign Policy 143, July-August, p. 32-39]

For more than two decades,… so-new world disorder.

War and instability can only occur in a world absent primacy

Bradley Thayer, Professor of Security Studies at Missouri State, 2006 [“In Defense of Primacy,” The National Interest, November/December, p. 32-37]

A grand strategy based on… of solving the world's ills.

Contention Four is Health

There is a massive shortage of health care workers and services in Kenya

USAID, Capacity Project Knowledge Sharing, 2007 [“The Capacity Project in Kenya,” March, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDACJ711.pdf]

Kenya’s health care system suffers… in other essential areas.

Demand for HIV treatment equipment outstrips supply – more assistance is needed

Robert K. Nyaga, Social Sector Division of the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, 2004 [“HIV/AIDS in Kenya: A Review of Research and Policy Issues,” KIPPRA Discussion Paper No. 38, June, http://www.kippra.org/Download/DPNO38.pdf]

Drugs that prevent mother-to-child… incurring heavy negative externalities.

Health centers have had to close as a result of the US ban on aid to Muslim NGOs – more will close without aid. This also bolsters resentment against the US

Sheikh Hussein Ibrahim Burale, Chairman of the Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims Garissa District, 2003 [“Open Letter to Heads of All Diplomatic Corps in Kenya,” December 15, http://www.twf.org/News/Y2004/0229-Kenya.html]

It is unfortunate and unfair that… funding the local Muslim projects.

And this also effects medical clinics

David C. Sperling, Ph.D. Founder and Teacher, Strathmore University, Kenya, 2006 [“Islam and the Religious Dimension of Conflict in Kenya,” Dec 22, http://muslimsinkenya.wordpress.com/2006/12/]

Sensitive to the needs (and… Saudi Arabia throughout Kenya.

Future AIDS epidemics in Kenya will have devastating effects on the agriculture sector, harming food security and destroying the farming cycle, which is critical to the Kenyan economy

Robert K. Nyaga, Social Sector Division of the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, 2004 [“HIV/AIDS in Kenya: A Review of Research and Policy Issues,” KIPPRA Discussion Paper No. 38, June, http://www.kippra.org/Download/DPNO38.pdf]

Agriculture employs a large segment… survival (Loenwenson and Whiteside, 2001).

Kenya economic growth is key to the region’s economy, solves terrorism, and proliferation

USAID, 2000 [“USAID/Kenya: Integrated Strategic Plan, 2001-2005,” http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDABU260.pdf]

Kenya is the most important… and threats to biodiversity.

Africa key to the US economy

Susan E. Rice, Senior Fellow in FPGS at the Brookings Institution, 2006 [“Africa’s Strategic Importance to the U.S., Speech at Reed College, March 20, http://www.aspr.ac.at/sak/SusanRice.pdf]

There are additional reasons for… for U.S. entrepreneurs and workers.

Economic collapse causes extinction

T.T. Bearden, Director of the Association of Distinguished American Scientists, 2000 

History bears out that desperate… at least for many decades.